扩展卡尔曼滤波数据同化试验--基于Lorenz(1960)系统的研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

费剑锋  韩月琪  王云峰  侯志明 《气象科学》2004,24(4):413-423

本文采用Lorenz(1960)系统，在只考虑初始误差及观测误差而不考虑模式误差的情况下，利用扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kalman Filter)数据同化方法进行了数值模拟试验。数值试验的结果表明：扩展卡尔曼滤波数据同化方法对系统状态的估计有较好的改善作用，能有效的抑制估计误差的增长；加大观测频率，可以进一步改善数据同化的效果，使估计误差进一步减小；由于模式误差的存在，系统的不稳定能量会不断的累积，出现了估计误差的异常增长和计算的不连续现象，在模式预报方程中的均值演变方程加人二阶偏差纠错项，对控制估计误差的异常增长，进一步改善数据同化的效果有较明显作用。  相似文献   

吉林六批叶沟金矿床绢云母⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar 快中子活化法定年研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

侯树桓  桑海清 《矿床地质》2004,23(4):502-508

在六批叶沟金矿石中,精选出与金矿物同期生成的绢云母作为样品,采用40Ar-39Ar快中子活化法测年,获得8个一致相连的平坦型绢云母年龄谱,tp=(190.28±0.30) Ma,氩同位素计算得等时线年龄为(189.98±0.58) Ma,两者完全吻合.等时线截距为(296.9±10.0) Ma,与大气氩的该值(295.5 Ma)相比较,两者完全吻合,表明该样品出自未受明显后期热力作用影响的非扰动体系.锁定六批叶沟金矿床主要成矿年龄为190 Ma左右,属早侏罗世的燕山早期.  相似文献   

Origin of Natural Gas in Kekeya Field, Tarim Basin, China     

HouDujie XiaoZhongyao TangYoujun ZhuJunzhang LiXianqing 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2004,15(1):91-98

This paper is mainly concentrated on the geochemical characteristics and origin of gas of Kekeya field in the Tarim basin, NW China. This study shows that Permian mudstone is the main source rock of oil and gas. Based on the carbon isotopes of C1--C4, the carbon isotope of gas in Kekeya field is a little heavier than that in the typical marine-derived gas. The relationship between carbon isotopes of methane and ethane is coincident with Faber equation of gas derived from organic matter Ⅰ/Ⅱ. The majority of gas maturity is estimated, based on the formula, at 1.8%-2.2% besides K2 and K18 wells. In addition, the gas derived from 0.9%-1.2% Ro source rocks may also bemixture. ^40Ar/^36Ar and ^3He/^4He ratios from the gas samples also support the mixing process. Moreover, the gas in this region is mainly generated from more mature source rocks although the low mature gas exists.  相似文献   

平和县灵通山旅游开发策略     

伍延基  侯志强 《福建地理》2005,20(3):33-36,54

闽南漳州市的平和县灵通山，是福建省第三批省级风景名胜区，但目前仍处于旅游地的参与阶段。要进入发展阶段，实现景区开发的经济、社会和环境效益，必须在明确旅游开发主体的前提下，挖掘旅游资源潜力、科学规划与设计景点、塑造鲜明的旅游形象并有针对性地进行旅游市场营销。此外，改善交通状况、完善景区解说系统、营造良好的旅游社会环境也是必不可少的重要策略。  相似文献   

Simulating runoff generation and its spatial correlation with environmental factors in Sancha River Basin: The southern source of the Wujiang River     

Hou  Wenjuan  Gao  Jiangbo 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(3):432-448

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Runoff generation is an important part of water retention service, and also plays an important role on soil and water retention. Under the background of the...  相似文献   

Experimental Investigation About Influence of Pre-existing Fracture on Hydraulic Fracture Propagation Under Tri-axial Stresses     

Wan Cheng  Yan Jin  Qing Lin  Mian Chen  Yakun Zhang  Ce Diao  Bing Hou 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(3):467-473

  相似文献   

Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭云霞  侯一筠  齐鹏 《海洋学报》2020,42(7):64-77

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

Integration of the full two-body problem by using generalized inertia integrals     

Xiyun Hou 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(2):38

A new algorithm to integrate the full two-body problem based on generalized inertia integrals is given. The computation speed is comparable to the fastest algorithm available till now which is based on spherical harmonics.  相似文献   

The Characteristics and Related Problems of the Orbits Around the Earth-Moon Libration Points     

Liu Lin  Tang Jing-shi  Hou Xi-yun 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(2):278-291

Due to the specific dynamics, the probes located at the halo orbits or Lissajous orbits around the Earth-Moon collinear libration point L₁ or L₂ are always studied in the synodic system to understand their trajectories. In fact, they are also orbiting the Earth in a distant Keplerian ellipse. Because of their intrinsic orbital instability, in the orbit prediction the initial errors propagate more prominently than those of the normal orbiting satellites, this requires special attention in the orbit design, maneuver, and control. Despite of all this, they are similar to the normal orbiting satellites in orbit determination and hardly require other special attentions. In this paper, the quantitative results of error propagation under the unstable dynamics, together with the theoretical analysis are presented. The results of precise orbit determination and short-arc orbit predictions are also shown, and compared with the results from the Beijing Aerospace Control Center.  相似文献   

Response of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean to the slow-moving super typhoon Nanmadol     

Yang  Bing  Hou  Yijun  Li  Min 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2019,37(3):938-956

Based on in-situ observation, satellite and reanalysis data, responses of the western North Pacific subtropical ocean(WNPSO) to the slow-moving category 5 super typhoon Nanmadol in 2011 are analyzed. The dynamical response is dominated by near-inertial currents and Ekman currents with maximum amplitude of 0.39 m/s and 0.15 m/s, respectively. The near-inertial currents concentrated around 100 m below the sea surface and had an e-folding timescale of 4 days. The near-inertial energy propagated both upward and downward, and the vertical phase speed and wavelength were estimated to be 5 m/h and 175 m, respectively. The frequency of the near-inertial currents was blue-shifted near the surface and redshifted in ocean interior which may relate to wave propagation and/or background vorticity. The resultant surface cooling reaches -4.35℃ and happens when translation speed of Nanmadol is smaller than 3.0 m/s.When Nanmadol reaches super typhoon intensity, the cooling is less than 3.0℃ suggesting that the typhoon translation speed plays important roles as well as typhoon intensity in surface cooling. Upwelling induced by the slow-moving typhoon wind leads to typhoon track confined cooling area and the right-hand bias of cooling is slight. The mixed layer cooling and thermocline warming are induced by wind-generated upwelling and vertical entrainment. Vertical entrainment also led to mixed layer salinity increase and thermocline salinity decrease, however, mixed layer salinity decrease occurs at certain stations as well. Our results suggest that typhoon translation speed is a vital factor responsible for the oceanic thermohaline and dynamical responses, and the small Mach number(slow typhoon translation speed) facilitate development of Ekman current and upwelling.  相似文献